For almost four decades, the Afghans are in a state of war; a war that is never ending. No nation has suffered as much as the Afghans did in the recent history, yet the clouds of uncertainty are looming over the war ravaged Afghanistan. The recent change of heart for Pakistan from Trump administration seeking latter’s help for facilitating dialogue with Taliban has generated some kind of hope in Afghanistan. Are these renewed efforts by US likely to help bring some kind of settlement with Taliban for a durable peace in Afghanistan?
Of course, there is no straight forward answer to this conundrum. However, a viable solution to the Afghanistan issue does warrant a wholesome review of the policies pursued by the stake holders that include global powers, regional players, immediate neighbours and the Afghans.
Let us begin with the United States (US) that claims to be the sole savior of Afganistan over the years. While US after having spent close to $1 trillion has entered into17th year of war in Afghanistan with no end results. US failed to claim a comprehensive victory against Taliban and Al-Qaida despite having the support of 150,000 troops of coalition forces. After drawdown of major forces in December 2016, US is now maintaining a lean presence in Afghanistan through a small force of just 8900 troops under the arrangement of ‘Bilateral Security Agreement’ (BSA). The BSA allows US presence in Afghanistan till 2024 in the name of training and equipping Afganistan national security forces to be able to fight Al-Qaida and Taliban. Despite US presence, the Taliban continues to grow in size and influence in the major parts of Afghanistan. However, there are some signs of weakening of Al-Qaida in Afghanistan; equally worrying news is that Islamic State (IS) is gaining a foothold there in a big way. Although there are conflicting estimates about their strength but for sure their presence is significant.
Ironically, US policy in Afganistan largely remained ambiguous and conflicting. At one point, Pakistan was their most favorite ally in the Afghan war following 9/11 for few years and then they started blaming Pakistan for all their failures. It is pertinent to highlight that US has sabotaged every peace initiative that was against her wishes and interests. Murree peace talk initiative by Pakistan and China is a case in point. Interestingly, Americans have always opted for military solutions in Afghanistan since 2001.
In June 2017, President Trump authorized 3000 thousand troops to Afghanistan as reinforcement with additional air efforts against Taliban. The sole purpose of this military effort from Trump administration was to force Taliban to negotiation table but unfortunately it back fired like their previous military efforts. Taliban’s influence continues to grow in most parts of the Afghanistan. According to BBC report, Taliban now control close to 70% of Afghanistan.
While China being a neighbor and major stakeholder in Afghanistan, is also eyeing for huge economic potentials of the region in view of her heavy investments. She is eager to extending CPEC to Afghanistan and beyond but US and India are the biggest hurdles in her pursuit. Yet China is constantly pursuing mediatory role towards peace in Afghanistan through all possible platforms including SCO.
