The drums of war are beating once again. An American aircraft-carrier strike group is steaming towards the Persian Gulf, joined by b-52 bombers, after unspecified threats from Iran. Just four years ago America and Iran were on a different path. After Barack Obama offered to extend a hand if Iran’s leaders “unclenched their fist”, the two sides came together, leading to the nuclear deal. That promised to set back the Iranian nuclear programme by more than a decade, a prize in itself, and just possibly to break the cycle of threat and counter-threat that have dogged relations since the Iranian revolution 40 years ago.
The US itself is most vulnerable to an escalation of Iranian support to the already ascendant Afghan Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. Tehran also has historical ties with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Shias in Afghanistan, which could be activated to disrupt any semblance of stability in Afghanistan. If Pakistan and Russia joined in such disruption, it would make a continued US presence in Afghanistan untenable.
The impending confrontation between Iran and the US, supported by Israel and Saudi Arabia, may defuse American scapegoating of Pakistan for its plight in Afghanistan. But Pakistan’s interests may suffer in several ways.
The biggest danger is a Saudi-Iranian proxy war on Pakistani soil, as happened in the 1990s. Pakistan must remain vigilant against any attempt by either side to use its territory for hostile operations against the other.
Pakistan’s economy will be negatively affected. Higher oil prices will slow Pakistan’s already faltering economic growth. Trade with Iran will freeze or decline as Pakistani banks and companies try to avoid secondary US sanctions. Progress will stall, again, on the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline. Difficulties may arise in dealing with some Russian and Chinese companies that may be subjected to secondary US sanctions.
Unfortunately, in its present circumstances, Pakistan is unable to do much to prevent a dangerous escalation of regional and global tensions following the US renunciation of the Iran nuclear agreement. Its first priority must be self-preservation.
However, The United States has increased economic and military pressure on Iran, with President Donald Trump urging Iranian leaders to talk to him about giving up their nuclear programme and saying he could not rule out an armed confrontation.
Quite an interesting line from the US Secretary: “We are looking for Iran to behave like a normal country,” If anything, this term “normal” means “oif or pertaining to the middle tendency”; thus by and large, “normal” countries have interests and when these interests are “attacked” they react. It’s not just the five major powers but many others which wield influence outside national borders in order to get favorable responses. Since the US believes that Iran is not a normal country, the questions would be “What are the attributes of a normal country?” and also whether the US is a normal country? The US forgets that with great power comes great responsibility to maintain global order and not just responsibility to allies to protect narrow national interests. It’s not just Noam Chomsky but our own academics who have stated that “By today’s US definition (Of not distinguishing between a freedom struggle/ legitimated resistance) George Washington could be branded a terrorist.
It is hawks like John Bolton, Pompeo, Stephen Miller, etc., who are advising Trump into a war. Trump, on the other hand is trying to please Netanyahu and the wealthy Jewish lobby so that he could win in 2020. Iran didn’t back down when the US was supporting Iraq in the in the 80s and it is not about to back down now but Iranian Supreme Leader is right sense should prevail from either side, war is an expensive & damaging alternative for all stake holders and for the region as a whole.
