For the first time, PTI workers faced the widespread state repression. Roads were blocked in Punjab with police raids, arrests and containers. All this was done to stop Imran Khan’s long march on May 25.
The PML-N and its coalition government had decided that at least people from Punjab will not be allowed to go to Islamabad. During a similar raid in Lahore, a constable was shot dead by a PTI worker.
The political situation is also becoming clearer. After the initial hesitation of the PML-N, the coalition alliance of PDM has now decided that the government will be maintained till the general elections at the end of next year. During which oil and electricity prices will be raised sharply to appease the IMF in the name of ‘difficult decisions’.
Resultantly, various draconian strategies were being worked out to stop the long march. Imran Khan was probably allowed to come from Peshawar while huge fractions of PTI workers were stopped within Punjab. The PML-N has pursued this dictatorial strategy many times before. They have mastered a shameful practice of state repression and obstruction.
There appears to be a daylight between long march of 2014 and 2022. At the time, Imran enjoyed the support of a large section of the establishment, known as the ‘Referees’. However, It is now being ridiculed as “Neutrals”. At that time, Tahir-ul-Qadri was also trying his luck with Imran Khan. Now, he is fighting alone.
In 2014, Imran relished an open support of corrupt capitalists like Aleem Khan and Jahangir Tareen, who both financed PTI’s adventures, but that too is no longer available. At that time the people especially the middle class and the working class were very determined and positive with Khan’s political narrative. In 2014, Imran Khan was also very fond of commercial media, and the two-third of the media houses rallied behind him. If he had opted to address the empty chairs, no media house could dare to boycott him, but now the situation is different. Except for one ARY, others are not supporting PTI as they did back in 2014.
After being humbled from the power corridors, Imran khan miscalculated that he would enjoy the same support for long march as usual political gatherings, but there is a stern difference in political Jalsas and state backed oppression with blatant use of force in Long March.
Khan’s knee-jerk reaction after being ousted as the PM is only going to destabilise PTI politically. The date of the election cannot be easily ascertained and the departure of this government does not seem possible in this way. Although, there is a clear division between the state and the ruling classes, the current coalition government now seems to have the support of a majority of military generals. At the same time, a large majority of Pakistan’s ruling class seems to be standing by the current government.
A closer look at the political situation reveals that Imran Khan’s current political base is limited to the middle class only, which includes a large number of newcomers. The middle class often does not have a permanent basis, it is temporary. This class is always swinging sometimes to one side and sometimes to the other. They too soon become disillusioned or too quick to become revolutionaries. Movements based on them can retreat as fast as they can temporarily emerge.
The pace with which this fraction of society has associated themselves with Imran Khan this frustrated section of society, can retreat overnight due to the state repression or any other political reason.
This long march of Imran was not historic but it will probably play a historic role in Imran Khan’s political retreat. Winning has its own charms and defeat comes with new lows. It is not that your defeat does not affect your politics. Nothing can be said for sure about the outcomes of this Long March, but it seems that it will not serve the desired purpose. Some of the reasons have been mentioned above.
The extremes of state repression often do not promote “revolutionary thinking,” but rather push it backwards. Imran Khan is a fake revolutionary politician, he suddenly became anti-American, all of a sudden a conspiracy was hatched to remove him from power, all of a sudden he became a “real libertarian”. He is doing all this to stay relevant in Pakistan’s political spectrum.
It is difficult to force the Shahbaz Sharif government to submit in to early elections. Although the current coalition is a weak government. It is also willing to do the dirty work of the IMF in the name of difficult decisions. This government will not be able to stop inflation, because of the great crisis of the capitalist economy, which is linked to the Covid-19 and Ukraine war. The current economic situation seem difficult to be fixed on the basis of capitalistic economic policy alone.
Different forms of such crisis will continue to emerge. The Shahbaz Sharif government lacks capacity to solve public problems. That is why it will be able to function as a weak and feeble government. It will face repeated political and economic crises. Not just PTI, so many more similar obsessions will keep coming in the way.
This political alliance was not made on political grounds, it was made to save lives and to revive political careers. They are temporarily successful in this, their own internal contradictions can come to the fore in many ugly forms in the near future.
Imran Khan’s temporary popularity may also take a backseat. The chances of him coming back to power are slim. The way the U-turn is being taken and the institutional bashing can become an obstacle in his way back to the power corridors.
Lastly, we must never support state repression under any circumstances. Politics should be rooted in revolutionary principles, in which democratic defence is central. Therefore, we should demand release of arrested political activists, removal of roadblocks, and condemn putting in obstacles in the way of peaceful struggle. If Imran Khan’s statement gets a majority, it should not be stopped with guns.
